This week the Toronto Blue Jays pitching situation tipped past tragedy into comedy – a team that could have eleven solid pitchers has been reduced by six. For most teams this would be a freak occurrence – almost unimaginable – for the Jays it is just a few steps further down a familiar road. Jays pitchers, particularly young ones, suffer injuries with striking regularity.
These are the ten best performances by young Blue Jays pitchers over the past four seasons (including pitchers under 27 who appeared in at least 30 games or threw at least 100 innings).
-Pitcher--Year-Age-ERA+-G--IP----W--L--ERA-WHIP-K/9-K/BB
J Accardo-2007--25-209-64--67.1--4--4-2.14-1.11-7.6-2.38
B League--2008--25-196-31--33.0--1--2-2.18-1.30-6.3-1.53
C Janssen-2007--25-190-70--72.2--2--3-2.35-1.20-4.8-1.95
B League--2006--23-180-33--42.2--1--2-2.53-1.01-6.1-3.22
B Wolfe---2007--26-150-38--45.1--3--1-2.98-0.99-4.4-2.44
S Marcum--2008--26-126-25-151.1--9--7-3.39-1.16-7.3-2.46
G Chacin--2005--24-119-34-203.0-13--9-3.72-1.39-5.4-1.73
J Litsch--2008--23-119-29-176.0-13--9-3.58-1.23-5.1-2.54
V Chulk—--2005--26-115-62--72.0--0--1-3.88-1.31-4.9-1.50
D McGowan-2007--25-109-27-169.2-12-10-4.08-1.22-7.6-2.36
Eight of these ten seasons were followed up by seasons marked by injuries – ranging from serious to catastrophic. From the top: Accardo missed twenty weeks in 2008 with a forearm strain; Janssen missed the entire 2008 season with a torn labrum; League lost most of 2007 to two stints on the DL, the first with a shoulder problem; Wolfe missed 8 weeks with a strained triceps; Marcum needed Tommy John surgery; Chacin missed half a season with a sprained ligament and strained forearm; Litsch is currently out with a forearm strain; and, McGowan has yet to return after he had season-ending surgery last July.
Eight of ten successful seasons followed by seasons shortened by arm injuries. This is far from the normal run of injuries for a major league franchise, but, for the Jays, it does put the current run of injuries in a different light.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Saturday, April 18, 2009
2009 Fantasy Projections
Below are fantasy projections for the 2009 MLB season. Obviously, these are posted later than would be ideal - the spreadsheets and formulae were much more complicated than initially expected, and adapting them for posting here was also a complex process - but, they are free.
Three projections are provided for each player, a best case, worst case and most likely case.
Please note, there are occasional anomalous stats, especially for players with fewer than three seasons of experience and pitchers who both start and relieve. Its up to you to know enough to spot these. Also, less experienced players may also project to play fewer games or pitch fewer innings - again, use your logic to spot these.
Three projections are provided for each player, a best case, worst case and most likely case.
Please note, there are occasional anomalous stats, especially for players with fewer than three seasons of experience and pitchers who both start and relieve. Its up to you to know enough to spot these. Also, less experienced players may also project to play fewer games or pitch fewer innings - again, use your logic to spot these.
Outfielders: Fantasy Projections
From left to right, these are three potential outcomes, best to worst.
.Outfielders.-.....Best Case.....-..Most Likely Case..-....Worst Case.....
Name.....Team..R..HR..BI.SB..BA..-..R..HR..BI.SB..BA..-..R..HR..BI.SB..BA.
Jackson--- Ar 076 17 076 06 .294 - 075 14 071 06 .293 - 056 10 058 01 .268
Upton----- Ar 038 10 030 05 .244 - 037 08 027 01 .239 - 017 02 011 01 .221
Young----- Ar 084 29 078 25 .245 - 084 25 077 19 .244 - 064 15 057 11 .241
Anderson-- At 079 20 099 07 .295 - 072 17 090 04 .292 - 055 14 073 01 .285
Francoeur- At 087 28 104 05 .288 - 077 17 088 02 .260 - 075 16 085 01 .251
Jones----- Ba 070 11 048 17 .267 - 057 08 045 10 .255 - 026 04 019 04 .230
Markakis-- Ba 097 21 097 16 .302 - 097 20 091 11 .302 - 080 18 071 05 .295
Pie------- Ba 026 02 021 10 .233 - 016 01 014 05 .223 - 010 01 010 03 .209
Bay------- Bo 104 32 102 13 .290 - 098 28 097 08 .274 - 085 25 089 07 .264
Drew------ Bo 100 25 089 05 .286 - 092 19 079 04 .278 - 066 12 057 02 .275
Ellsbury-- Bo 097 13 084 58 .352 - 094 10 057 49 .307 - 088 09 051 31 .290
Bradley--- CC 079 24 078 15 .311 - 070 20 065 07 .310 - 060 18 060 06 .283
Johnson--- CC 068 09 057 08 .303 - 066 07 049 07 .289 - 044 05 026 04 .264
Soriano--- CC 092 35 084 32 .288 - 090 33 077 23 .287 - 084 30 069 17 .279
Bruce----- Ci 063 21 052 04 .254 - 063 21 052 04 .254 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Dickerson- Ci 020 06 015 05 .304 - 020 06 015 05 .304 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Taveras--- Ci 082 02 030 59 .304 - 074 01 029 56 .275 - 056 01 021 25 .266
Choo------ Cl 049 08 048 08 .305 - 040 07 038 03 .300 - 005 01 005 01 .231
Dellucci-- Cl 065 19 054 05 .265 - 036 09 037 02 .247 - 029 07 028 01 .237
Francisco- Cl 044 13 053 06 .275 - 043 10 037 02 .274 - 009 02 009 00 .266
Sizemore-- Cl 127 31 088 35 .285 - 112 29 084 34 .275 - 106 23 076 23 .272
Hawpe----- Co 074 26 102 04 .290 - 072 26 095 02 .287 - 062 19 077 01 .277
Spilborghs Co 040 10 050 09 .340 - 037 07 039 06 .306 - 019 03 017 02 .294
Dye------- CW 094 38 104 07 .296 - 088 34 094 03 .283 - 075 28 082 03 .267
Quentin--- CW 078 27 087 06 .272 - 073 27 084 06 .269 - 048 12 056 02 .228
Wise------ CW 014 03 013 05 .247 - 011 03 010 03 .238 - 002 00 001 00 .176
Granderson De 112 24 070 19 .288 - 112 22 069 16 .284 - 085 19 064 08 .269
Guillen--- De 098 21 096 19 .313 - 091 17 087 14 .297 - 067 11 056 08 .293
Ordonez--- De 099 25 120 04 .339 - 089 24 115 02 .330 - 077 22 101 01 .307
Amezaga--- Fl 050 05 034 21 .264 - 043 03 029 12 .264 - 023 01 012 06 .243
Hermida--- Fl 068 22 070 08 .289 - 061 15 056 05 .265 - 028 06 025 02 .252
Maybin---- Fl 018 04 004 15 .355 - 009 00 002 04 .308 - 003 00 001 01 .118
Ross------ Fl 071 25 084 07 .289 - 061 22 075 05 .269 - 043 18 053 03 .240
Bourn----- Ho 070 04 021 72 .248 - 050 03 017 34 .234 - 020 00 006 08 .182
Lee------- Ho 097 38 131 16 .308 - 092 36 128 10 .307 - 076 27 096 07 .291
Pence----- Ho 085 30 101 17 .322 - 080 25 090 13 .289 - 079 20 089 12 .286
Crisp----- Ka 081 12 060 30 .285 - 066 07 047 23 .273 - 060 06 043 16 .270
DeJesus--- Ka 092 11 072 13 .301 - 083 10 065 10 .287 - 069 07 048 05 .273
Guillen--- Ka 083 25 098 04 .283 - 070 19 090 03 .270 - 066 19 088 01 .258
Abreu----- LA 114 21 104 30 .295 - 107 18 102 24 .291 - 101 17 100 24 .287
Guerrero-- LA 095 32 119 12 .325 - 088 28 107 06 .315 - 085 27 101 05 .314
Hunter---- LA 091 29 102 22 .282 - 088 25 091 18 .282 - 088 23 085 16 .274
Ethier---- LD 073 17 070 06 .307 - 070 16 069 04 .299 - 047 11 057 02 .293
Kemp------ LD 098 25 078 29 .317 - 087 18 073 28 .301 - 074 13 063 16 .272
Ramirez--- LD 098 37 119 02 .323 - 092 31 107 02 .318 - 085 27 097 01 .301
Cuddyer--- MN 091 20 090 11 .278 - 082 15 085 07 .269 - 046 07 048 02 .260
Gomez----- MN 071 08 053 45 .254 - 060 07 048 33 .247 - 037 05 032 24 .232
Span------ MN 070 06 047 18 .294 - 070 06 047 18 .294 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Braun----- MW 122 46 130 20 .323 - 103 40 115 16 .300 - 102 40 114 16 .298
Cameron--- MW 085 28 083 23 .259 - 079 23 075 19 .248 - 068 16 062 16 .244
Hart------ MW 086 24 083 25 .291 - 072 20 078 20 .278 - 059 15 063 13 .256
Beltran--- NM 117 36 118 25 .279 - 110 31 113 23 .279 - 097 26 097 21 .273
Church---- NM 059 16 063 07 .277 - 050 13 054 03 .275 - 028 08 036 02 .274
Murphy---- NM 024 02 017 00 .313 - 024 02 017 00 .313 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Damon----- NY 108 18 075 31 .301 - 098 17 070 28 .289 - 097 14 068 21 .279
Gardner--- NY 018 00 016 13 .228 - 018 00 016 13 .228 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Nady------ NY 066 22 083 04 .293 - 065 22 082 03 .292 - 045 14 052 02 .272
Buck------ Oa 044 13 046 05 .289 - 026 07 029 02 .261 - 016 03 016 01 .248
Holliday-- Oa 119 34 127 22 .332 - 113 30 109 19 .328 - 092 24 087 09 .316
Sweeney--- Oa 028 06 029 05 .277 - 022 03 025 05 .255 - 002 00 004 00 .229
Ibanez---- Ph 096 28 115 04 .292 - 086 24 111 02 .292 - 081 21 098 01 .288
Victorino- Ph 091 16 068 39 .290 - 089 12 052 31 .289 - 061 06 038 09 .266
Werth----- Ph 061 18 062 15 .280 - 061 17 060 15 .279 - 026 05 025 04 .259
McLouth--- Pi 086 19 062 27 .267 - 085 19 061 21 .267 - 041 07 018 07 .244
Morgan---- Pi 027 02 012 11 .301 - 022 01 007 08 .300 - 012 00 005 05 .295
Moss------ Pi 030 05 021 01 .276 - 014 05 013 01 .269 - 004 00 001 00 .250
Gerut----- SD 046 14 043 06 .296 - 035 08 031 05 .275 - 004 01 003 01 .258
Giles----- SD 090 17 080 09 .295 - 079 13 062 04 .288 - 075 12 059 03 .271
Headley--- SD 021 05 023 02 .267 - 015 04 021 02 .250 - 001 00 000 00 .222
Balentien- Se 030 28 120 00 .663 - 014 05 016 00 .500 - 001 01 002 00 .204
Chavez---- Se 042 03 035 12 .292 - 030 02 019 07 .279 - 024 01 014 05 .274
Gutierrez- Se 099 10 035 10 .266 - 044 09 034 07 .256 - 015 02 009 02 .252
Suzuki---- Se 112 11 065 44 .339 - 107 07 052 41 .326 - 105 06 048 36 .317
Lewis----- SF 136 09 060 20 .376 - 080 08 040 18 .314 - 050 05 028 09 .284
Rowand---- SF 093 22 079 14 .296 - 073 18 073 05 .284 - 060 13 059 04 .271
Winn------ SF 084 16 065 23 .304 - 080 12 063 19 .297 - 077 11 061 12 .282
Ankiel---- SL --- -- --- -- ---- - 087 31 101 03 .269 - 017 06 020 01 .268
Ludwick--- SL 087 37 097 06 .290 - 077 30 086 04 .279 - 052 19 052 04 .252
Crawford-- Ta 094 15 079 53 .312 - 092 12 078 45 .295 - 079 09 063 35 .287
Joyce----- Ta 040 12 033 00 .252 - 040 12 033 00 .252 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Upton----- Ta 086 21 076 38 .287 - 075 13 063 31 .280 - 066 07 044 22 .259
Cruz------ Te 035 13 047 05 .281 - 024 08 028 02 .264 - 008 02 008 00 .225
Hamilton-- Te 101 37 116 08 .302 - 096 32 109 08 .299 - 085 28 081 05 .291
Murphy---- Te 038 10 042 04 .318 - 035 08 031 04 .285 - 008 01 005 00 .250
Rios------ To 104 22 093 28 .296 - 095 18 082 24 .295 - 073 12 062 13 .286
Snider---- To 009 02 013 00 .301 - 009 02 013 00 .301 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Wells----- To 088 29 104 13 .296 - 088 24 098 10 .280 - 072 18 075 06 .262
Dukes----- Wa 040 16 035 09 .243 - 040 12 034 07 .236 - 027 08 021 02 .188
Dunn------ Wa 105 44 106 09 .255 - 090 40 101 05 .245 - 086 37 094 04 .237
Milledge-- Wa 062 15 070 19 .265 - 059 14 062 13 .264 - 044 10 051 05 .249
NOTE: Several names have also been shortened for the spacing. Also, be aware of occasional statistical anomalies, especially prevalent for players with fewer than three years experience.
.Outfielders.-.....Best Case.....-..Most Likely Case..-....Worst Case.....
Name.....Team..R..HR..BI.SB..BA..-..R..HR..BI.SB..BA..-..R..HR..BI.SB..BA.
Jackson--- Ar 076 17 076 06 .294 - 075 14 071 06 .293 - 056 10 058 01 .268
Upton----- Ar 038 10 030 05 .244 - 037 08 027 01 .239 - 017 02 011 01 .221
Young----- Ar 084 29 078 25 .245 - 084 25 077 19 .244 - 064 15 057 11 .241
Anderson-- At 079 20 099 07 .295 - 072 17 090 04 .292 - 055 14 073 01 .285
Francoeur- At 087 28 104 05 .288 - 077 17 088 02 .260 - 075 16 085 01 .251
Jones----- Ba 070 11 048 17 .267 - 057 08 045 10 .255 - 026 04 019 04 .230
Markakis-- Ba 097 21 097 16 .302 - 097 20 091 11 .302 - 080 18 071 05 .295
Pie------- Ba 026 02 021 10 .233 - 016 01 014 05 .223 - 010 01 010 03 .209
Bay------- Bo 104 32 102 13 .290 - 098 28 097 08 .274 - 085 25 089 07 .264
Drew------ Bo 100 25 089 05 .286 - 092 19 079 04 .278 - 066 12 057 02 .275
Ellsbury-- Bo 097 13 084 58 .352 - 094 10 057 49 .307 - 088 09 051 31 .290
Bradley--- CC 079 24 078 15 .311 - 070 20 065 07 .310 - 060 18 060 06 .283
Johnson--- CC 068 09 057 08 .303 - 066 07 049 07 .289 - 044 05 026 04 .264
Soriano--- CC 092 35 084 32 .288 - 090 33 077 23 .287 - 084 30 069 17 .279
Bruce----- Ci 063 21 052 04 .254 - 063 21 052 04 .254 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Dickerson- Ci 020 06 015 05 .304 - 020 06 015 05 .304 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Taveras--- Ci 082 02 030 59 .304 - 074 01 029 56 .275 - 056 01 021 25 .266
Choo------ Cl 049 08 048 08 .305 - 040 07 038 03 .300 - 005 01 005 01 .231
Dellucci-- Cl 065 19 054 05 .265 - 036 09 037 02 .247 - 029 07 028 01 .237
Francisco- Cl 044 13 053 06 .275 - 043 10 037 02 .274 - 009 02 009 00 .266
Sizemore-- Cl 127 31 088 35 .285 - 112 29 084 34 .275 - 106 23 076 23 .272
Hawpe----- Co 074 26 102 04 .290 - 072 26 095 02 .287 - 062 19 077 01 .277
Spilborghs Co 040 10 050 09 .340 - 037 07 039 06 .306 - 019 03 017 02 .294
Dye------- CW 094 38 104 07 .296 - 088 34 094 03 .283 - 075 28 082 03 .267
Quentin--- CW 078 27 087 06 .272 - 073 27 084 06 .269 - 048 12 056 02 .228
Wise------ CW 014 03 013 05 .247 - 011 03 010 03 .238 - 002 00 001 00 .176
Granderson De 112 24 070 19 .288 - 112 22 069 16 .284 - 085 19 064 08 .269
Guillen--- De 098 21 096 19 .313 - 091 17 087 14 .297 - 067 11 056 08 .293
Ordonez--- De 099 25 120 04 .339 - 089 24 115 02 .330 - 077 22 101 01 .307
Amezaga--- Fl 050 05 034 21 .264 - 043 03 029 12 .264 - 023 01 012 06 .243
Hermida--- Fl 068 22 070 08 .289 - 061 15 056 05 .265 - 028 06 025 02 .252
Maybin---- Fl 018 04 004 15 .355 - 009 00 002 04 .308 - 003 00 001 01 .118
Ross------ Fl 071 25 084 07 .289 - 061 22 075 05 .269 - 043 18 053 03 .240
Bourn----- Ho 070 04 021 72 .248 - 050 03 017 34 .234 - 020 00 006 08 .182
Lee------- Ho 097 38 131 16 .308 - 092 36 128 10 .307 - 076 27 096 07 .291
Pence----- Ho 085 30 101 17 .322 - 080 25 090 13 .289 - 079 20 089 12 .286
Crisp----- Ka 081 12 060 30 .285 - 066 07 047 23 .273 - 060 06 043 16 .270
DeJesus--- Ka 092 11 072 13 .301 - 083 10 065 10 .287 - 069 07 048 05 .273
Guillen--- Ka 083 25 098 04 .283 - 070 19 090 03 .270 - 066 19 088 01 .258
Abreu----- LA 114 21 104 30 .295 - 107 18 102 24 .291 - 101 17 100 24 .287
Guerrero-- LA 095 32 119 12 .325 - 088 28 107 06 .315 - 085 27 101 05 .314
Hunter---- LA 091 29 102 22 .282 - 088 25 091 18 .282 - 088 23 085 16 .274
Ethier---- LD 073 17 070 06 .307 - 070 16 069 04 .299 - 047 11 057 02 .293
Kemp------ LD 098 25 078 29 .317 - 087 18 073 28 .301 - 074 13 063 16 .272
Ramirez--- LD 098 37 119 02 .323 - 092 31 107 02 .318 - 085 27 097 01 .301
Cuddyer--- MN 091 20 090 11 .278 - 082 15 085 07 .269 - 046 07 048 02 .260
Gomez----- MN 071 08 053 45 .254 - 060 07 048 33 .247 - 037 05 032 24 .232
Span------ MN 070 06 047 18 .294 - 070 06 047 18 .294 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Braun----- MW 122 46 130 20 .323 - 103 40 115 16 .300 - 102 40 114 16 .298
Cameron--- MW 085 28 083 23 .259 - 079 23 075 19 .248 - 068 16 062 16 .244
Hart------ MW 086 24 083 25 .291 - 072 20 078 20 .278 - 059 15 063 13 .256
Beltran--- NM 117 36 118 25 .279 - 110 31 113 23 .279 - 097 26 097 21 .273
Church---- NM 059 16 063 07 .277 - 050 13 054 03 .275 - 028 08 036 02 .274
Murphy---- NM 024 02 017 00 .313 - 024 02 017 00 .313 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Damon----- NY 108 18 075 31 .301 - 098 17 070 28 .289 - 097 14 068 21 .279
Gardner--- NY 018 00 016 13 .228 - 018 00 016 13 .228 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Nady------ NY 066 22 083 04 .293 - 065 22 082 03 .292 - 045 14 052 02 .272
Buck------ Oa 044 13 046 05 .289 - 026 07 029 02 .261 - 016 03 016 01 .248
Holliday-- Oa 119 34 127 22 .332 - 113 30 109 19 .328 - 092 24 087 09 .316
Sweeney--- Oa 028 06 029 05 .277 - 022 03 025 05 .255 - 002 00 004 00 .229
Ibanez---- Ph 096 28 115 04 .292 - 086 24 111 02 .292 - 081 21 098 01 .288
Victorino- Ph 091 16 068 39 .290 - 089 12 052 31 .289 - 061 06 038 09 .266
Werth----- Ph 061 18 062 15 .280 - 061 17 060 15 .279 - 026 05 025 04 .259
McLouth--- Pi 086 19 062 27 .267 - 085 19 061 21 .267 - 041 07 018 07 .244
Morgan---- Pi 027 02 012 11 .301 - 022 01 007 08 .300 - 012 00 005 05 .295
Moss------ Pi 030 05 021 01 .276 - 014 05 013 01 .269 - 004 00 001 00 .250
Gerut----- SD 046 14 043 06 .296 - 035 08 031 05 .275 - 004 01 003 01 .258
Giles----- SD 090 17 080 09 .295 - 079 13 062 04 .288 - 075 12 059 03 .271
Headley--- SD 021 05 023 02 .267 - 015 04 021 02 .250 - 001 00 000 00 .222
Balentien- Se 030 28 120 00 .663 - 014 05 016 00 .500 - 001 01 002 00 .204
Chavez---- Se 042 03 035 12 .292 - 030 02 019 07 .279 - 024 01 014 05 .274
Gutierrez- Se 099 10 035 10 .266 - 044 09 034 07 .256 - 015 02 009 02 .252
Suzuki---- Se 112 11 065 44 .339 - 107 07 052 41 .326 - 105 06 048 36 .317
Lewis----- SF 136 09 060 20 .376 - 080 08 040 18 .314 - 050 05 028 09 .284
Rowand---- SF 093 22 079 14 .296 - 073 18 073 05 .284 - 060 13 059 04 .271
Winn------ SF 084 16 065 23 .304 - 080 12 063 19 .297 - 077 11 061 12 .282
Ankiel---- SL --- -- --- -- ---- - 087 31 101 03 .269 - 017 06 020 01 .268
Ludwick--- SL 087 37 097 06 .290 - 077 30 086 04 .279 - 052 19 052 04 .252
Crawford-- Ta 094 15 079 53 .312 - 092 12 078 45 .295 - 079 09 063 35 .287
Joyce----- Ta 040 12 033 00 .252 - 040 12 033 00 .252 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Upton----- Ta 086 21 076 38 .287 - 075 13 063 31 .280 - 066 07 044 22 .259
Cruz------ Te 035 13 047 05 .281 - 024 08 028 02 .264 - 008 02 008 00 .225
Hamilton-- Te 101 37 116 08 .302 - 096 32 109 08 .299 - 085 28 081 05 .291
Murphy---- Te 038 10 042 04 .318 - 035 08 031 04 .285 - 008 01 005 00 .250
Rios------ To 104 22 093 28 .296 - 095 18 082 24 .295 - 073 12 062 13 .286
Snider---- To 009 02 013 00 .301 - 009 02 013 00 .301 - 000 00 000 00 .000
Wells----- To 088 29 104 13 .296 - 088 24 098 10 .280 - 072 18 075 06 .262
Dukes----- Wa 040 16 035 09 .243 - 040 12 034 07 .236 - 027 08 021 02 .188
Dunn------ Wa 105 44 106 09 .255 - 090 40 101 05 .245 - 086 37 094 04 .237
Milledge-- Wa 062 15 070 19 .265 - 059 14 062 13 .264 - 044 10 051 05 .249
NOTE: Several names have also been shortened for the spacing. Also, be aware of occasional statistical anomalies, especially prevalent for players with fewer than three years experience.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
